Strategic Studies of Jurisprudence and Law

Strategic Studies of Jurisprudence and Law

The Effect of Political Stability on Stock Returns and Stock Return Volatility (Comparative Comparison of Iran and Türkiye in the Last Ten Years)

Document Type : research

Authors
Bizhan Soltanifard 1
Mojtaba Maghsoudi 2
1 Department of Political Science, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Political Science,Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/ejs.2026.552668.2139
Abstract
Background and aim: In the present study, the relationship between political stability and stock price index returns and volatility was estimated using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model in the period 1375-1395.
Methods: This research is of a theoretical type and has been carried out using a descriptive-analytical method.
Ethical considerations: In this research, the principles of trustworthiness, honesty, neutrality and originality of the work have been respected.
Results: Political stability in the long run has a positive and significant relationship with stock price index returns; also, in the short and long term, political stability has a negative and significant effect on return fluctuations, meaning that improving the political environment increases returns and reduces fluctuations; the results were estimated using the ARDL model.
Conclusion: The results show that in the long run, the political stability index has a positive and significant relationship with stock price index returns, and in the short and long term, political stability has a negative and significant effect on return fluctuations; Therefore, improving the political environment increases returns and reduces volatility, and the hypotheses were accepted.
Keywords
Political stability
stock returns
stock return volatility
autoregressive distribution lags (ARDL)
Subjects
منابع
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Strategic Studies of Jurisprudence and Law
Volume 8, Issue 3 - Serial Number 30
Studies of economic jurisprudence
Summer 2026
Pages 143-160